Futuresource Consulting forecasts global projector volumes sales will fall by around 20% from 2015 to 2020.
However, market value is expected to move in the opposite direction-- and is set to experience double-digit growth over the same period.
This value will be driven by greater adoption of solid state solutions (which will retain their premium over lamp-based equivalents), replacement demand of digital cinema models and erosion of the bottom-end of the market.
Given their history of correctly predicting how the projector market will develop, Futuresource says the notion that value will grow as volumes decline can-- (and we are quoting here)-- "almost be considered a fact."
Despite the numerous and varied factors impacting the projector market, Futuresource shows it still continues to predict the development of volume sales with accuracy. For example, in Q1 2014, Futuresource forecasted the global projector market in 2015 was set to hit 7.6 million units – the actual number was 7.67 million units-- a difference of just -0.9% Y2Y. Pretty good forecasting. (We're not quoting here, that's us speaking. Less than 1% off is about as good as forecasting gets.)
Regional level predictions were also precise—Americas’ results were just -0.3% out, APAC -2.4% and EMEA only 0.8%.
Claire Kerrison, Senior Market Analyst, Professional Displays at Futuresource Consulting says, "Despite the debate surrounding the impact of Euro 2016 in EMEA and macro-economic/political issues across several key markets, Futuresource's CYQ1 2016 forecasts were out by just 3.8% as the market hit 1.73 million units – a tad greater than the 1.67 million units predicted a year earlier. The forecast accuracy can be attributed to careful consideration, on a country level, of numerous market influencers."
In calculating its forecasts, Futuresource analyses: penetration rates, development of competing display technologies (of which Futuresource has several well-established trackers), mobile PC tenders, government spend, economic outlook and market seasonality-- as well as more macro factors such as advances in projection technology.